At first glance, it appears that our region’s labor market has finally turned a corner and begun to recover. According to the Washington State Employment Security Department Whatcom County’s unemployment rate fell from 9.5 percent in March to 8 percent in April. In Skagit County, the rate fell from 11.5 percent to 9.8 percent during the same period.
The state unemployment rate fell for the first time in more than three years from 9.5 percent in March to 9.2 percent in April. However, in Whatcom and Skagit counties, much of the job growth resulted from seasonal work in agriculture and, in Whatcom County, the lower rate in April can be explained in part because approximately 16 percent of the labor force seeking employment in March dropped out of the labor force in April. In addition, these numbers don’t account for the underemployed people who are working in jobs they are over qualified for. We have an extraordinary talented labor pool in our area that is operating substantially below it’s potential. Unfortunately, that’s the good news.
The challenge we now face is avoiding higher unemployment as the new norm. This won’t be easy if the political class at all levels of government can’t control the severe problem of too much government spending and debt. As I write this column the national debt has exceeded $13 trillion. That equals $117,975 per tax-payer and amounts to a 90 percent debt-to-gross-domestic-product ratio and doesn’t include the debt associated with unfunded entitlement programs and the losses from Fannie and Freddie that total $145 billion and rising.
The political class has dug an enormous economic hole for us and their current policy seems to be to keep digging. The private sector is heavily burdened and concerned about future tax increases and increased cost of doing business associated with a complex 2,700 page health-care reform bill, a financial reform bill expected to be more than 2,000 pages (which does not address Fannie or Freddie), and other initiatives like cap and trade and talks about a European-style value-added tax.
In addition, in mid-May USA Today reported that paychecks from private business shrank to their smallest share of personal income in U.S. history during the first quarter of this year. In the same time frame, government-provided benefits rose to a record high. This trend is unsustainable. The government depends on the taxes from the private sector to pay for these expanding programs. With private incomes shrinking and government spending increasing, the math just doesn’t work.
Why is this particularly important to those of us living in Whatcom and Skagit counties? In our region, government is our largest employer. In the past, this has been a great benefit and to a certain degree, it’s why we’ve never really experienced the economic high of the highs or low of the lows. However, the lack of fiscal discipline at the federal and state levels and the down trend in private incomes will have a clear negative impact on local governments and our regional economy. Western Washington University is in the process of managing approximately $13 million in budget cuts as are most other state institutions and virtually every local government agency is dealing with similar challenges.
So, what is the solution? First, we must send a clear message to Washington D.C. and Washington state that we’ve had enough. We must demand fiscal discipline. We’ll have that opportunity in November.
Second, we must refocus local efforts on economic development and job creation in the private sector. A number of groups including the Economic Development Association of Skagit County and the Northwest Economic Council of Whatcom County have been at the heart of these efforts. In the past, the focus has been on touting the quality of life and strong labor force in an effort to attract companies to relocate to our region. In order to make these efforts successful, it requires strong cooperation from local governments in making us a business-friendly region. Skagit County has been successful in that regard. Whatcom County has not. In the current economic environment, if we’re going to create jobs, it’s going to require our government officials backing up their rhetoric with action and it will require focusing on existing small and early-stage companies, which is where most of the jobs are likely to come from.
And third, local governments are going to be required to discipline themselves financially and understand they will be facing challenges that will be trickling down from the federal and state levels. Raising taxes and imposing costly regulations on businesses and productive individuals in this environment is typically the first reaction. Instead, officials should re-examine their priorities and be prepared to make some tough choices.
