Last week Dr. Julie Hansen, an economics professor at Western Washington University, spoke to a group at the Building Industry Association of Whatcom County’s Housing Outlook and Construction Economic seminar. Hansen is the editor of the Whatcom County Real Estate Research Report, which is out this week. She gave an overview of the current housing market at the state level, then zeroed in on specifics to Whatcom County and Bellingham.
“In our region we relied on internal migration for our growth,” Hansen explained, adding that the national recession has stifled the flow of migration from one state to another as people simply can’t afford to move.
Yet, “we’re clearly in a better position than other areas,” Hansen said, noting other regions around the country. But that doesn’t mean we aren’t feeling the pinch of the recession, she admits. Housing recovery is “still very fragile,” and will take a turnaround in high unemployment and foreclosures to really see the market recover.
Perennially listed as overvalued on lists such as the one from IHS Global Insight, which cited 21.4 percent of Bellingham/Whatcom homes overvalued in fourth quarter of 2009, the area is still a lower-cost alternative to Seattle or Vancouver, B.C., Hansen said.
The “why” to this phenomenon could lie in several factors, Hansen said. Possibilities include a city climate “above average in terms of its anti-growth policies” or the impact of a stronger Canadian dollar, among others. A spillover effect from housing prices in California may also be a factor, she said.
Realtor Mike Kent, who attended the seminar, added that it has a lot to do with how buyers perceive the value of the area. “People here are willing to pay more of their income for a higher quality of life,” he said.
Members of the audience brought a number of questions to Hansen on varying topics. Here’s a sampling of the discussion:
• Shifting preferences: Will younger homeowners continue to “drive to qualify” for an affordable home in the county, or will they be wooed by the idea of urban living? While living downtown may appeal to Generation Y, Hansen feels their views may change as their family situation does. “Are people going to want to raise kids in condos?” she asks. One builder in the audience remarked that he is seeing many young families migrate to the Ferndale area.
• On the waterfront: How will Bellingham’s waterfront redevelopment affect us? Hansen notes that now is the prime time for boomers to be buying a second home, not necessarily in the approximately 10 years it will take for development to be realized. “One of my concerns is that we’re not going to recover fast enough to capture that (market).”
Tags: Bellingham, real estate, Whatcom County